摘要： 我国粗结婚率的下降、粗离婚率和离婚结婚比的上升背后，有人口年龄结构变动和婚姻推迟的影响，并不能反映我国真实的结婚水平。2000—2017年间的人口普查数据和抽样调查数据表明，普婚仍旧是我国婚姻的突出特点。我国真实的结婚水平仍旧很高，且经历过结婚事件的人群中初婚者占绝大多数，离婚、再婚者的比例很低。年轻群体中婚姻年龄在逐渐推迟，但最终绝大多数人还是会进入婚姻状态，同队列终身不婚者的比例长期处于极低水平。婚姻的推迟，离婚、再婚现象的增多，其背后有经济社会发展、人口受教育水平提高、婚姻家庭观念转变、人口流动等多重因素的影响，反映了我国婚姻的不稳定性有所增强，但还没有改变我国人口整体上普遍结婚的事实。因此，对时期指标的运用和解读，应当更加科学谨慎。

关键词: 结婚率, 离婚率, 离婚结婚比, 不婚率, 队列

Abstract:  The decline in crude marriage rate, the rise in crude divorce rate, as well as the rise in divorcemarriage ratio, are partly in?uenced by changes in the age structure of the marriageable population and the increase of their age of marriage. These are unable to reflect the facts of marriage in China. The census data and sample survey data from 2000 to 2017 show that umarriage is still a prominent feature in China. The true level of marriage rate in China is still very high. The majority of the married people are ?rst married, and the proportion of divorces and remarriages is very low. The marriage age of young people is gradually postponed, but in the end, the vast majority of people will get married, and the proportion of people who do not marry for their life is at a very low level.

Key words:  crude marriage rate, crude divorce rate, marriage-divorce ratio, propotion of never-married reople, cohort