摘要： 疫情是一种严重的外生冲击，构建疫情经济学理论框架，需要将卫生经济学、宏观波动 理论与发展经济学等多个学科交叉，以综合分析流行病理学下的医护和疾控资源投入、 疫情对经济及金融体系的外生冲击和中国所处的特定发展阶段所受到的深远影响。在动 态比较的框架内，当前中国的经济体系已经发展演化为总量更庞大、结构更多元、城市 化和工业化程度更高的现代经济体，疫情冲击所产生的后果与 2003 年非典时期相比会 更加复杂。疫情的发生会导致总供需曲线同时收缩，国内外供应链和产业链变得更加脆 弱，企业尤其是中小企业的订单和现金流风险快速上升，企业的经营管理理念和投资者 的风险偏好都会发生变化。疫情的突然爆发也会通过流动性、信用杠杆、金融市场、金 融机构、心理预期等传导渠道冲击金融体系，全球化背景下国家间的共振、短板和放大 效应的叠加可能会引发全球金融危机。面对疫情冲击对经济带来的严重影响，政策层面 需要在供给侧降低企业成本和在需求侧通过积极的宏观政策激发总需求，同时要将疫情防控期的金融稳定管理内嵌于已有的双支柱体系，发挥好地方金融管理部门的作用，在疫情期间守住不发生系统性风险的底线。

关键词: 疫情防控, 中国经济, 疫情经济学, 全球共振, 金融风险

Abstract: The epidemic is a serious exogenous shock. To construct the theoretical framework of epidemic economics, it is necessary to intersect multiple disciplines such as health economics, wave theory and development economics, which helps to analyze the input of medical care and disease control resources under epidemiology, the exogenous shock on economic and ?nancial system and the far-reaching impact on China’ s development comprehensively. With the framework of dynamic comparison, China’s current economic system has evolved into the modern economy with larger size, more diversi?ed structure and higher degree of urbanization and industrialization. Therefore, the consequences of the epidemic are more complicated compared with the SARS period in 2003. The outbreak of the epidemic causes the decline in the supply and demand. Both the supply chains and industrial chains at home and abroad become more vulnerable. Moreover, with the change of management concept and risk preference, the risk of orders and cash ?ow, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, is rising rapidly. The sudden outbreak of the epidemic also a?ects the ?nancial system through transmission channels such as liquidity, credit leverage, ?nancial market, ?nancial institution and psychological expectation. Under the background of globalization, the superposition of resonances, shortcomings and ampli?cation e?ects among countries may trigger a global ?nancial crisis. In the face of the serious impact, it is needed to reduce business cost on the supply side and stimulate demand through positive macro policies on the demand side. Meanwhile, the ?nancial stability management should be embedded in the existing two-pillar system to play the role of local ?nancial management departments, holding the bottom line of no systemic risks during the epidemic. 

Key words: epidemic prevention and control, Chinese economy, epidemic economics, economic ?uctuation, ?nancial risk