摘要：
围绕“十四五”规划学界有一种观点，认为在规划中应设定一个制造业占比指标。但是，以制造业立国的先行工业化大国的历史表明，工业化末期后三产化迭起、制造业占比下降是个普遍现象，“配第－克拉克定律”和“包默尔病理说”分别从理论上做了合乎逻辑的解释，而生产性服务业自制造业析出则给予统计学视野的解释。我国“十三五”以来已进入工业化收尾期，三产化趋势凸显。“十四五”期间经济发展的重点应该还是在服务业尤其是生产性服务业。继续增强我国制造业实力并无异议，但是硬性提出一个制造业占比指标，不仅有悖产业结构的演化规律，而且不利于贯彻中央新近提出的“十四五”期间推动经济高质量发展的主题。
关键词:
“十四五规划” ,
产业结构 ,
制造业占比 ,
“包默尔病理说” ,
高质量发展
Abstract:
Focusing on how to adjust the industrial structure and promote high-quality economic development during
the 14th Five-year Plan period, there is a view that“set the proportion index of manufacturing industry”. However,
the history of the leading industrialized countries based on manufacturing industry shows that it is a common
phenomenon that after the end of industrialization, the three industries rise one after another and the proportion
of manufacturing industry decreases.“Petty Clark’s Law”and“Baumer’s Theory of Pathology”make a logical
explanation in theory respectively, while the separation of producer services and self manufacturing industry gives a
statistical explanation. There is no objection to enhance the strength of China ’s manufacturing industry continuously, but the rigid proportion index is contrary to the evolution of industrial structure.
Key words:
“14th Five-year Plan”
,
industrial structure
,
proportion of manufacturing industry
,
“Baumer’s Theory
of Pathology”
,
high-quality development
赵伟.
[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2021(1): 60-68.
Zhao Wei.
China’s Economic Development Had Better Not Set Proportion Index of Manufacturing Industry
During the Period of the 14th Five-year Plan
[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2021(1): 60-68.