摘要：
系统解析现有二孩生育意愿调查的结果可以发现，普通育龄人口的二孩生育意愿其实处于50%~60%的范围，即处于中等水平；流动人口的二孩生育意愿也在55%左右，二者之间差别不大。而导致众多研究得出“二孩生育意愿比例偏低”的主要原因，是在统计二孩生育意愿时，既没有纳入已生育二孩的人口，也没有对“没想好”的人口比例进行必要的调整。修正二孩生育意愿研究结论，有助于提升政府相关部门和社会舆论对三孩生育政策实施效果的信心，也有助于在三孩政策实施背景下形成更具针对性的操作策略，当前特别要从婚育、养育、教育等方面逐渐建立起“生育两个或三个孩子”的新型生育文化，抓好三孩生育政策的实施及配套支持措施的落实。
关键词:
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三孩政策｜育龄人口｜流动人口｜二孩生育意愿｜研究偏差
Abstract:
By systematically analyzing the results of the existing second-child fertility willingness survey, it can be found that, the willingness of two children in ordinary people of childbearing age is in the range of 50% to 60%, that is, at the medium level. The floating population also has about 55% willingness to have second children. There is little difference between the two. Many research results show that“the proportion of second child fertility intention is low”, mainly because there is no statistics on the population who has had two children when counting the second child fertility intention; nor has the necessary adjustment been made to the proportion of the population“not considered clearly”. Revising the research conclusion of two child fertility will help to enhance the confidence of relevant government departments and public opinion in the implementation effect of three child fertility policy.
Key words:
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three-child policy｜population of childbearing age｜floating population｜second-child fertility intention｜research bias
风笑天.
三孩生育意愿预测须防范二孩研究偏差
[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2021(11): 80-89.
Feng Xiaotian.
The Prediction of Three-Child Fertility Intention Must Avoid the Deviation of Second-Child Research[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2021(11): 80-89.