摘要：
“一带一路”倡议实施以来成效非常显著，不过其迈入精细化发展阶段面临的五类隐形连锁性风险也不容忽视，尤其是新冠肺炎疫情带来的世界经济下滑与欧美政治动荡更加大了不确定风险，对此，“一带一路”倡议的高质量实施需要高度重视、化险为机。基础设施投资作为“一带一路”建设的重点优先领域，由于回报率低、风险高，导致私人资本参与率低，进而使得中国政府不得不承担较高的出资比重。这一方面增加了经济贸易问题的泛政治化风险，容易导致投资安全风险高企；另一方面也有可能带来国内产业结构失衡和产业空心化的风险。对此，五大精准应对策略的实施非常必要：一是创新跨国PPP合作模式；二是完善“亚投行”运营机制；三是建立海外投资保护机制；四是推动产业创造性转移及改善中美战略互信；五是消除沿线国家的战略疑虑。
关键词:
一带一路 ,
精细化发展阶段 ,
基础设施投资 ,
风险管理 ,
隐形风险 ,
连锁机制
Abstract:
The“One Belt One Road”initiative has achieved remarkable results since its implementation, but the chain
of risks it faces cannot be ignored. Due to the low return and high risk of infrastructure investment, the private capital
participation turns to be lower, so the Chinese government has to bear a higher proportion of investment. On the one
hand, it increases the political risk about economic and trade issues, which leads to high investment security risks; on
the other hand, it may also bring about the risks of imbalance of domestic industrial structure and hollow industry. Depended on our analysis, five policy options are suggested.
Key words:
One Belt One Road
,
fine development stage
,
infrastructure investment
,
risk management
,
implicit risk
,
linkage mechanism
葛天任, 张明.
“一带一路”精细化发展阶段隐形风险的连锁机制与精准对策
[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2021(3): 94-103.
Ge Tianren & Zhang Ming.
Linkage Mechanism and Accurate Countermeasures of Invisible Risks in the Fine Development Stage of the “One
Belt One Road”
[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2021(3): 94-103.