摘要： 人口发展一直是被广泛关注的社会问题，在国家与社会发展的不同阶段，中国人口发展的规律和影响机制有所差异。1949—2010年间，我国人口生育影响机制主要是国家、社会、家庭共同作用的结果，并且国家生育政策的影响力较大，社会经济因素对中国人口生育的影响较弱。2010年以来，我国人口发展呈现出低生育率特征，该现象的背后涉及复杂的社会、经济、文化等因素，而生育政策的决定性作用逐渐衰减。另外，宏观人口和社会经济因素、健康水平也对中国人口规模有着较大影响。在此基础上，应从生育主体、家庭与社会环境等方面精准施策，探索建立生育友好型社会。

关键词: 新常态｜人口发展｜全面三孩｜影响机制

Abstract:

Since the founding of PRC, population development has been a social issue of widespreadconcern. At different stages of national and social development, the laws and influence mechanisms of China’s population development are difffferent. Since 2010, China’s population development has shown the characteristics of low fertility, which involves complex social, economic, cultural and other factors, and the decisive role of fertility policy has gradually declined. In addition, macro demographic, socio-economic factors and health level also have a great impact on China’s population size. On this basis, we should accurately implement policies from the aspects of fertility subject, family and social environment, and explore the establishment of a fertility friendly society.

Key words: new normal｜population development｜comprehensive three child｜inflfluence mechanism