摘要：
中国高校正在进行以“不升即走”或“非升即走”为核心特点的长聘制改革。张维迎教授在中国高校引入该制度的过程中曾扮演了比较重要的角色，但是由于他用传统博弈论过度抽象的框架来把握谢林直面现实的博弈思想，对“非升即走”得以起到良好作用的“任责—威胁/承诺”逻辑或机制的认知存在一定偏差，未能很好地理解“威胁”（Threat）与“承诺”（Promise）的差异；也未能清晰地认知它们的“可信”和“不可信”，并不在于由参与人、行动、信息、战略、收益所构成的博弈框架，而在于该框架之外的参与人通过“任责”（Commitment）凸显的个性地位差异、社会结构、文化环境等因素。由于谢林思想背后隐含的“非对称博弈”的现实取向没有被真正地领会，从而导致“非升即走”理论替代现实操作的不可取，这也是“非升即走”制度在中国高校陷入困境的理论之源，因为该制度的良好运转需要满足和创造三个方面的前置性条件。
关键词:
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非升即走｜任责｜威胁｜承诺｜不可置信
Abstract:
Chinese colleges and universities are carrying out the reform of permanent employment systemwhich is“up or out” or employment system with the core characteristics of“up or out”. Zhang Weiying played an important role in the introduction of this system in Chinese colleges and universities, but he did not know much about the logic or mechanism of“commitment - threat/promise” that makes“up or out” work well. Because he did not really understand the realistic orientation of“asymmetric game” implied behind Schelling’s thought, it is not advisable for the theory of“up or out” to replace the practical operation. This is also the theoretical reason why the“up or out”system is in trouble in Chinese colleges and universities, unless three preconditions are met and created.
Key words:
“up or out”｜commitment｜threat｜promise｜incredible
王水雄.
“非升即走”凭什么有效——兼与张维迎教授的博弈框架商榷
[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2021(9): 89-99.
Wang Shuixiong.
Why Does “Up or Out” Work?——Deliberate with Professor Zhang Weiying’s Game Framework[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2021(9): 89-99.