摘要：
中国是一个由计划向市场长周期转轨的渐进改革的二元体制经济体，目前还存在一定程度的二元体制扭曲，由于结构主义的分析方法难以准确刻画过去经济增长的来源，有必要重新反思经济奇迹的内在逻辑，梳理超大规模二元体制经济学的内在体系。改革开放以来，中国广义技术进步TFP年均增长至多为1%，而体制改革TFP却带来了71%的GDP增长。这来源于要素市场化配置对生产率的提高和城镇住宅资产化改革从零到市场价格的溢值。其中，土地资产化从零到市场价格的溢值，成为1978年以来推动国民经济增长的最大动能。对于未来体制改革与经济增长内在的因果推动关系，梳理改革的阶段逻辑、内容逻辑和行动逻辑，同时考虑到二元经济体制的特长周期，体制改革释放体制扭曲所禁锢的增长潜能的特性，以及体制扭曲差值等数理联系逻辑，可以构建体制改革与经济增长内在数理关系的仿真模型。推演的基本结果是：如果进行大力度的要素市场化改革，在坚持土地国有和集体所有前提下，进一步实施城镇住房和农村宅基地资产化改革、调节水资源分布、增加可利用土地等，在2035年前经济增长速度可以稳定和支撑在年平均5%~6%的区间。
关键词:
Abstract:
China, as a dual-system economy in a long-cycle transition from a planned economy to a market
economy, still suffers from dual system distortions. Analysis of structuralism cannot portray the sources of past
economic growth,so it is necessary to rethink the internal logic of economic miracle and sort out the internal
system of super large-scale binary system economics. It can be seen from the simulation model of the internal
mathematical relationship between system reform and economic growth that if we carry out intensive factor
market-oriented reform, further implement the reform of urban housing and rural homestead capitalization,
adjust the distribution of water resources, increase the available land, etc. on the premise of adhering to the
state-owned and collective ownership of land, the economic growth rate can be stabilized and supported at an average annual range of 5%~6% before 2035.
Key words:
周天勇.
从转轨到并轨：超大规模二元体制经济学的内在体系
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Zhou Tianyong.
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