摘要：
近些年兴起的“因果推论革命”极大地推动了政治学研究方法的发展，但也在一定程度上窄化了人们对于“科学”“因果”等概念的认知。基于反事实因果观的控制性比较以自然科学的逻辑研究社会现实，很容易在追逐精致研究设计中陷入方法论至上主义的误区，这隐然对新兴的历史政治学构成了极大的挑战。社会世界的特殊性在于其建构性，社会科学由“心”驱动这一事实既是其相较于自然科学的关键差异，也是其优势所在。基于这样的总体认知，我们可以在实证主义之外赋予“讲故事”以因果性，即把传统的历史叙述建立在律则论因果观的基础之上，从而形成“历史性因果叙述”。历史性因果叙述关注研究对象在具有本体属性的历史进程中是如何被塑造以及自我塑造的，研究者可以借此完成理论对话、假设检验并进一步探求因果规律，进而实现历史政治学“以史为鉴”的目的。
关键词:
Abstract:
In recent years, the“revolution of causal inference”has greatly promoted the development of
political science research methods, but also narrowed people’s cognition of the concepts of“science”and “causality”to a certain extent. The particularity of the social world lies in its constructiveness. The fact that
social science is driven by“heart”is not only its key difference from natural science, but also its advantage. Based on such a general cognition, we can endow“storytelling”with causality beyond positivism, that is,
the traditional historical narration is based on the causal view of legal theory, so as to form“historical causal
narration”.
Key words:
释启鹏.
[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2022(7): 86-95.
Shi Qipeng.
Abundant Poverty——Rethinking the Comparative Method of Historical Politics
[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2022(7): 86-95.