摘要：

文化现实效应的既有分析重在勾画文化与其他待解释社会现象之间的相关性，以经验相关来指代因果。文化创造性转化和创新性发展研究的前提，是识别文化的因果效应。将文化的多层本体论建构置于“科尔曼之船”的结构个人主义分析框架之上，可以得出识别文化因果效应的关键四点：其一，如果宏观层次的文化是微观层次个体文化的集合性建构，那么识别集合文化因果效应的前提是控制其内部构成因素的个体文化。其二，如果集合文化可以直接作用于个体层面的外在行动或者偏好，那么识别个体文化的因果效应需要对集合文化进行控制。其三，无论是集合文化还是个体文化的因果效应，工具变量法都可以用来克服潜在的混淆偏误。其四，如果在宏观层次和微观层次之间增加中观层次的制度因素，那么在特定的研究场景下，集合文化和个体文化的因果效应都难以准确识别。当下，文化创造性转化和创新性发展的具体研究，需要在概念界定上进一步厘清文化和制度之间的相互关系，在理论论辩过程中审慎考察是否能够精确把握文化经验的现实效力。

关键词:

文化, 因果效应, 科尔曼之船, 混淆偏误, 相撞偏误

Abstract:

Studies on the practical effects of culture lean toward describing the correlation of culture with other tobe-explained social phenomena, thus proxying causality with correlation. The premise for realizing the creative transformation and innovative development of culture is to identify the causal effect of culture. This article places the multi-level ontology of culture into the structural individualist framework of Coleman’s Boat, which renders four points of view. First, if macro culture is an aggregation of micro culture, identifying the causal effect of macro culture calls for controlling for the constituent micro culture. Second, if macro culture can directly affect behaviors or preferences at the individual level, identifying micro culture’s causal effect should fix macro aggregate culture. Third, the method of instrumental variable can be used to identify the causal effect of either macro or micro culture. Fourth, if meso-level institutional factors are added between macro and micro culture, in some scenarios, the causal effects of macro and micro culture cannot be identified. The research of the creative transformation and innovative development of culture should clarify the conceptual relationship between culture and institution, interrogating the practical effects of culture through meticulous theoretical reasoning.

Key words:

culture,  causal effect,  Coleman’s Boat,  confoundedness bias,  collider bias