以诺思的制度变迁理论为基础，考察我国大陆商品房预售制的缘起、变迁动力与变迁路径可以发现，经过 20 多年的发展，我国城市化快速推进，房地产领域的住房投资资金和居民居住条件已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。商品房预售制中多方的相对代价也发生转变：国家的逻辑从重视增长转向重视分配，购房者的逻辑从迫切追涨转向审慎抉择。这些变化使得一些之前透支运作的房地产开发企业陷入困境，连带一些地区的预售制运转遇到困难。对此，应努力克服路径依赖，多措并举探寻商品房预售制改革的最优解。

商品房, 预售制度, 现房销售, 诺思, 制度变迁

Based on North’s theory of institutional change, it examines the origin, driving forces, and path of change of the presale system of commercial housing in mainland China. After over 20 years of development, China’s urbanization has advanced rapidly, and the housing investment funds and living conditions of residents have undergone tremendous changes. The relative costs of various parties in the presale system have changed, and the national logic has shifted from emphasizing growth to emphasizing distribution, and homebuyers’ logic has shifted from urgent pursuit of inflation to cautious decision-making. These changes have made it difficult for some real estate developers who previously overdrawn, as well as difficulties in the operation of presale systems in some regions. We should strive to overcome path dependence and explore the optimal solution for the reform of the presale system of commercial housing through various institutional combinations.

commercial housing, presale, exisiting house sale, Douglass North, institutional change