人口负增长时代，我国人口治理体系需要作出相应调整以适应新时代对于共同富裕的追求。基于共同富裕视域，根据内生驱动力观念和外生驱动力分配，可以将我国人口转变划分为四个阶段，包括共同贫穷阶段人口快速增长期、部分富裕阶段人口缓慢增长期、先富带后富阶段人口负增长期和共同富裕阶段人口复杂增长期。在共同贫穷阶段和部分富裕阶段，我国传统人口治理借鉴西方经验，以“富裕”为核心调整人口策略；在先富带后富阶段和共同富裕阶段，我国现代人口治理须走出西方经验，以“共享”为核心调整人口策略。未来人口治理策略需要适应当前的观念体系和分配体系，着力提升养育水平。发展取向要从过去的滞后型、控制型转向前瞻型、适应型；具体方向要从以人口福利为导向转向以家庭福利为导向；价值导向要从个体主义趋势发展为家庭个体主义；核心抓手要平衡好“富裕”与“共享”。

低生育时代, 人口治理, 共同富裕, 家庭个体主义, 家庭福利

China’s population governance system should adjust to accommodate the pursuit of common prosperity in an era of negative population growth. Starting from the driving forces behind the second demographic transition, it delineates four stages of population change in China based on endogenous and exogenous drivers: rapid population growth during the common poverty stage, slow growth during the partial prosperity stage, negative growth during the stage where the wealthy lead the less wealthy, and complex growth during the common prosperity stage. In the stages of common poverty and partial prosperity, our

traditional population governance can broadly draw from Western experiences, focusing on prosperity-centered population strategies. As China moves towards the stages of the wealthy leading and common prosperity, its population management must diverge from Western experiences and focus on shared-centered strategies. The future population management strategy in China must emphasize easing the drivers of demographic transition, aiming to enhance child-rearing standards. Therefore, the development orientation needs to shift from a previous reactive and control-based approach to a proactive and adaptive one, with a specific direction moving from population welfare-oriented to family welfare-oriented, and the value orientation evolving from individualism to family individualism. The core approach requires balancing “wealth” and “sharing”.

low fertlity era, population governance, common prosperity, family individualism, family welfare