探索与争鸣 ›› 2024, Vol. 1 ›› Issue (5): 42-53.

• 本刊特稿 • 上一篇    下一篇

高质量发展:理论思辨与改革实践|稳增长与防风险:地方政府专项债券之革新

钟宁桦,胡林杉
  

  • 出版日期:2024-05-20 发布日期:2024-06-10
  • 作者简介:钟宁桦,同济大学经济与管理学院副院长,教育部长江学者特聘教授; 胡林杉,同济大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。(上海 200092)
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目“新形势下地方政府性债务风险管控的目标、难点与实现路径研究”(19ZDA073);国家自然科学基金面上项目“08 年金融危机后我国金融效率下降与国有企业改革”(71973101);上海市 2023 年度“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究项目(23692123801)

Steady Growth and Risk Prevention: The Reform of Local Government Special Bonds

Zhong Ninghua & Hu Linshan
  

  • Online:2024-05-20 Published:2024-06-10

摘要:

随着积极财政政策加力提效,地方政府专项债券在实现经济高质量发展、防范地方债务风险等方面愈发重要。近年来专项债券期限更长、成本降低,更好满足了地方政府的融资需求;与此同时,部分地区的债务规模较大、融资成本较高,面临较大的偿债压力。从债券、项目、地区层面探究专项债券稳增长成效发现,近期专项债券规模快速扩容,有力助推地区基建投资;传统基建项目在专项债券项目中占比较高,对投资的撬动效应较大,但专项债券投入新基建项目对地区经济的长期正向影响要强于投入前者。从限额配置和募资投向剖析专项债券潜在风险发现,部分地区专项债务限额配置与经济基本面存在一定偏离,专项债券的一些投向也存在收支缺口,这可能加大专项债券未来的偿付压力。为进一步发挥专项债券的政策效能,需要着眼于“稳增长”和“防风险”的平衡,在优化投向结构、增强撬动效应、完善限额管理等方面持续加力。

关键词:

Abstract: With the intensified implementation and effectiveness enhancement of proactive fiscal policies, local government special bonds have become increasingly significant in facilitating high quality economic development and preventing local debt risks. In recent years, the longer maturity and lower cost of special bonds have better catered to the financing requirements of local governments. However, certain regions are confronted with substantial pressure for debt repayment owing to their extensive debt scale and elevated financing expenses. An examination of the effectiveness of special bonds in promoting steady growth, from the perspectives of bond issuance, project implementation, and regional impact, reveals that the recent rapid expansion in special bond scale has effectively stimulated infrastructure investment. Traditional infrastructure projects constitute a relatively substantial proportion in special bond projects, exerting a notable leverage effect on overall investment. However, investments in new infrastructure projects exhibit a stronger long-term positive impact on regional economies compared to traditional infrastructure projects. To further enhance the policy effectiveness of special bonds, it is crucial to strike a balance between “steady growth” and “risk prevention”, and continue to strengthen efforts in optimizing investment structure, augmenting leverage effect, and refining the management of debt limits.

Key words: special bonds, steady growth, risk prevention, high quality development, traditional infrastructure projects, new infrastructure projects